4.5/4.6/4.25/4.26/4.28

4.5-
1. The questions used to evaluate computer models are.....
How well do the modelers understand the underlying science or theory (be it physics, chemistry, economics, etc.) of the system being studied?
How well understood are the relevant properties of the materials involved?
How accurate and complete are the data?
What are the assumptions and simplifications of the model?
How closely do the results or predictions of the model correspond with results from physical experiments or real experience?
4.6-
The climate and car crash model use the simplification of a grid. Grids vary in different sizes and climate models stimulate roughly 100 years over. Due to the grid limitations, small storms, clouds and other small phenomena that fall between the grid points and are not accurately represented. The car crash is the same way because it is done in steps and things can fall through the good points.
4.25-
An argument in the defense of the experience firefighter is that he has been on the job for over 25 years, and that shows that he has a lot of experience doing controlled burns. The computer can possibly make suggestions on when to burn, but the man's judgement is just as strong because he has done this sort of thing for half a century, proving that the decision he makes will most definitely be the right one. Computers have very accurate calculations, but they are not able to be there in the moment, and can't have the emotions or feelings there are when a decision is being made, they do not have the first hand account of being there.
An argument in the boss' defense is that computers have the best judgement out of any human. (As shown on jeopardy through Watson the computer)The computers job is to accurately narrow down the time in which the burning is to take place, and if the recipients follow what the computer says than everything will go smoothly and there will be no chance of danger or injury.
4.26- My decision would not be affected by the company's policy about testing. The factors that are most important to me are what the company chooses to do after the testing has been done. If the product did not do well in the testing simulations or physical tests, than the product should not have been distributed in the first place. Every company needs to make sure that the products they make and sell are completely safe and people will not sustain any serious injury, if the company chooses to go against that policy than they should absolutely be reprimanded and face the repercussions that are to follow. In my personal opinion I think that everything that is sold should have some kind of insurance that no serious injury or death will be sustained involving the product, if company's do not pay attention or care about the testing, than they can burn in hell and go to jail because i'm not buying their stuff.
4.28-
1. I believe the model that predicts the effect of an income tax change on government revenue would be less reliable. Income tax can change at any time for any number of different reasons, whether it be some sort of natural disaster, another recession, or something having to do with only the government. Income tax is something that cannot be predicted or calculated and as a result a model that is suppose to predict the income tax would not be entirely accurate. In my opinion it would not make the right predictions most of the time.
2. I believe the model that can predict the position of the moon in relation to the earth, 30 years from now, can produce very accurate results. The atmosphere and it's surroundings are things that can be predicted very easily and accurately just by studying the patterns and history of the moon, history tends to repeat itself when it comes to space and how things interact with each other and move around, so I believe the predictions would be very accurate.
3. I believe the model that can predict how much optical fiber will be needed in a major city thirty years from now will have much less reliable results. There is no possible way to calculate how much optical fiber will be needed in a major city in thirty years because the population is growing at an exponential rate and then you have to combine that with the size of the people in a city and that can change in many different ways over the span of thirty years so the results would not be that accurate.
4. I believe the model that can predict how much CO2 will be emitted worldwide by burning fossil fuels for energy fifty years from now will not be accurate at all. Fossil fuels are declining as we speak and so calculations could not be made based on how much fossil fuel is available to us in today's time, because that will change and there is no guarantee on how much there will be in fifty years, so the results for how much will be burned will not be accurate.
5. I believe that models that predict the speed of a new racing boat hull design under specified wind conditions will be very accurate. The model can obtain the results of other hulls that are in commission and compare them to the new hull that is being made, and test the new hull in wind conditions and the model will be able to create a database of all the different mileage of winds and then directly relate them to that certain hull.